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3 Things Daily - Venezuela's Path to Elections, China Economy and ZAR Longest Losing Streak

In today's newsletter, President Nicolás Maduro, who is seeking a third term but faces a polling deficit, aims to garner support...

Hi there,

In today's newsletter, President Nicolás Maduro, who is seeking a third term but faces a polling deficit, aims to garner support by fueling nationalist sentiments. Simultaneously, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) is contemplating measures to stimulate economic recovery. Additionally, South Africa's rand continued its depreciation against the US dollar due to a strengthened greenback.

Matheus Zani & Daniel Porto

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1. Venezuela's Path to Elections

In response to mounting protests from dissatisfied public workers ahead of the presidential elections, Venezuela has raised its monthly minimum wage by over 40%. President Nicolás Maduro announced a $60 monthly supplement, along with $40 in food stamps, in addition to the existing base salary of nearly $4—surpassing the previous $70 in bonuses. Adopting the US dollar helped Venezuela combat hyperinflation, making this move a substantial real-term increase. Maduro, vying for a third term but lagging behind in polls, aims to rally support by stoking nationalist sentiments, including reigniting a border dispute with Guyana. Protests by teachers and public workers for higher wages are intensifying, with Teacher's Federation President Carmen Márquez stating a 25-fold pay increase to over $550 per month is needed. Despite economic growth exceeding 5%, facilitated by eased US sanctions, challenges persist on the path to fairer elections.

2. China Publicly Rebuked Singapore

Amidst efforts to stimulate economic recovery, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) is considering reducing lending rates and banks' reserve requirement ratio in the first quarter, following its decision to keep the MLF rate unchanged, as reported by China Securities Journal. Simultaneously, China publicly rebuked Singapore for congratulating Taiwan's new leader, Lai Ching-te, underscoring its "one-China" stance. This rare display of disapproval serves as a reminder to the island republic of China's unwavering position on the matter. The juxtaposition of economic measures and geopolitical tensions highlights the multifaceted challenges facing China on both the economic and diplomatic fronts.

3. Rand Weakens on Finance Minister's Consideration of Contingency Fund Amidst Dollar Strength

South Africa's rand continued its decline against the US dollar as the greenback strengthened, and Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana mentioned the possibility of accessing a 497 billion-rand ($26.6 billion) contingency fund. Godongwana acknowledged the increase in reserves but emphasized the complexity of such a decision, requiring agreement between himself and the central bank governor. Speaking on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, he stated, "It raises challenges about the impact on the balance sheet of the central bank, and so on. We have to take a lot of those things into account." Currently, there is no finalized deal, and both the government and central bank feel no immediate pressure. The rand experienced its longest losing streak in three weeks, reaching its lowest levels since December 12.

Charted Territory

What to look out for today

World Economic Forum Annual Meetings
GBP - Unemployment Rate (Nov)
BRL - Brazilian Service Sector Growth (Nov)
CAD - CPI (Dec)

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